England have reached at least the semi-finals in each of the last two major tournaments, finishing fourth at the Russia 2018 World Cup and losing to Italy in the final of EURO 2020.
The Three Lions have however been hampered by defensive issues ahead of Qatar 2022, with Harry Maguire out of form and favour at club side Manchester United while Kyle Walker is struggling for fitness with Manchester City.
Full backs Reece James and Ben Chilwell have been ruled out of the tournament entirely because of injuries.
Shearer reckons England are well stocked in midfield and attack but their issues at the back will hold them back at the Mundiale.
"I don't see us going as far as we have done in the last two tournaments," said Shearer.
"I think in terms of midfield positions and forward positions Southgate will be confident but in terms of defensively, that's an area for concern," he added, speaking at the launch of The Athletic's Emergency Football Hotline.
"We should win the group with the ability that we have in our squad. The further you go in the tournament the better the opposition are going to be and the players you're up against, so my concern for England would be defence."
Pushed on a prediction for how far England will go, he added: "I'd say maybe a quarter-final."
England manager Gareth Southgate will name his final 26-man squad on Thursday, with the Three Lions placed in the same group as Iran, USA and Wales.
